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Emergency and Disaster Management Blog
September 10th, 2008
by David Longshore
In its September 8, 2008, edition, The New York Times published an interesting article by journalist Mike Nizza, titled, “On Hurricanes, Fear and Fatigue.” The article discusses the media’s role in “hyping” Hurricane Gustav in advance of its forecasted landfall in New Orleans some two weeks ago, as well as the decision by elected officials in New Orleans to order a (costly and disruptive) mandatory evacuation of the city. As many of Disaster Central’s more emergency-wise readers know, Gustav eventually rolled ashore to the west of New Orleans, thereby sparing the hurricane-prone city another destructive direct strike. This “non-event” has left many observers concerned that future warnings to prepare for and evacuate from future tropical cyclones will not be heeded because of this seeming false alarm.
While this is a valid and necessary EM concern, it should not hinder emergency management professionals from ordering future mandatory evacuations according to circumstances as they appear at the time a decision is necessary. No one who understands emergency management, who understands the nuanced difficulties in decision-making that accompany this vital field, would ever shy away from sounding the call to evacuate simply because one doesn’t want to appear to “cry wolf” to the mass media or general public. Disaster Central feels that there are many other hazards in the world besides wolves, and each requires a particular set of responses in order to be protected against. The continual use of the cliché, “crying wolf,” only serves to mask the real challenges (and gaps) in emergency management planning and operations. While it’s accurate to say that warnings, bulletins, and response operations can be dangerous and costly, it’s equally important to remember that they should still be undertaken when those who are given the responsibility to call for them must (under the circumstances) do so. Anyone who believes that a responsible emergency manager would call for an evacuation – mandatory or otherwise – without good, sound, defensible reasons for doing so is simply not being realistic. In fact, all emergency managers worth the honor of the title would rather avoid calling for any kind of evacuation, would much rather not have the need to issue warnings even arise, than have to make what is known as a politically and logistically difficult decision. One can’t focus on the process of emergency management, of planning for evacuations, without coming to know the many communities that would be affected by such a decision. A good emergency management operation always has a high degree of situational awareness, both in terms of an event, and in terms of the constituency that would be impacted. For that reason, it’s not an easy task to call for the disruption of those lives – even for a few days – lightly, and without a lifesaving imperative as its motivating factor.
At the same time, the public must come to better understand the role of emergency management, and of how its very credibility is based on action during times of crisis. This is an objective that the emergency management community must continue to work toward achieving. Part of the reason why New Orleans’ emergency management mechanism was so proactive with 2008’s Hurricane Gustav was because of its perceived inactivity during 2005’s Hurricane Katrina. A literal gale of criticism followed Katrina’s deadly landfall along the northern Gulf Coast, much of it directed toward the entire emergency management community. And while it seems patently unfair to criticize post-Katrina EM for its broad response to Gustav, the community itself knows that to have done nothing prior to Gustav or to Hanna, to have been inactive and disinterested, would’ve proven a worse failure than a whole legion of “unnecessary” evacuations. Disaster Central believes it would much rather listen to a million civilian complaints about the temporary disruption caused by an “unnecessary” evacuation, than it would the sobs of grief of just one person who has lost a friend or family member to a natural or human-made hazard that could have been avoided.
There are additional systematic changes that could be implemented that would reduce the fear of spectral wolves - and overly-broad evacuations. One might be to institute a national emergency insurance program that provides evacuation and emergency insurance to all Americans. This insurance, with the premiums being paid by the individual taxpayers as a payroll deduction, would reimburse 100% of costs associated with evacuations and other emergency conditions, including lost salaries. Such a program might in the end reduce the current financial burden on the federal government caused by emergency situations, while at the same time providing a degree of surge capacity to those most affected by catastrophic events. The United States has always cherished its can-do, self-reliant character; let’s not forget that when planning and calling for evacuations and other preparedness measures.
Another tool for enhancing the field’s credibility is continued education for emergency managers, decision-makers, and the general public. Twice a year, MCNY’s MPA program in Emergency and Disaster Management runs Operation Flying Cloud, a decision-making exercise which pits the abilities of suburban and urban emergency management teams against the ferocious destructiveness of a Category 3 North Atlantic hurricane. Conducted by Professor David Longshore as part of his Open House series, Operation Flying Cloud permits a simulation of those myriad challenges that decision-makers must face in an educational environment that allows for an emphasis on process; process, after all, plays a large role in effective emergency management operations.
At this time, Hurricane Ike, a powerful Category 2 system, is marching across the Gulf of Mexico toward the densely-populated shores of northeastern Texas. The National Hurricane Center (NHC), which does an overall superb job of providing guidance on atmospheric phenomena that by their very nature are unpredictable, has forecast that Ike will most likely come ashore as a Category 4 hurricane – a very destructive storm. In several Texas communities, mandatory evacuations have been called for, and many of the major cities like Galveston and Corpus Christi have activated their full emergency management operations. They have good, sound reason to be concerned. In early September of 1900, for instance, a storm that for much of its existence followed a very similar course to that of Hurricane Ike, trampled Galveston as a Category 4 monster. At least 6,000 people in Galveston were killed; and as many as another 6,000 died in other parts of the state. And while improvements in technology and the construction of a mighty seawall have made Galveston – indeed, much of coastal Texas – more resilient in the face of such intense meteorological conditions, it remains the improvements in emergency management, in planning, evacuation, and mass care that will ultimately save the most lives.
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Posted by David Longshore in Fear Management.
David Longshore is the Director of MCNY’s Emergency and Disaster Management MPA Program.
This entry was posted
on Wednesday, September 10th, 2008 at 7:16 pm and is filed under Fear Management.
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September 10th, 2008 at 10:16 pm
I concur with your assessment. The New York Times article in question is just another example of the media playing Monday morning quarterback. Weather can be unpredictable. We just dodge one bullet and Ike is on its way. Ike went from a Three to a Two and then back to a Three the day before yesterday. The paper of record should just breath a sigh of relief and encourage future evacuations because of the success of this one.
Just an opinion.
JVelez
September 11th, 2008 at 8:06 am
This is a difficult balance for anyone in the EM profession. If you evacuate and nothing happens, shame on EM. If you don’t evacuate and something happens, shame on EM. It is easy for evacuees to place this blame after a false alarm for their “inconvenience.” They fail to look at the big picture… at the time of the evacuation decision, EMs had data that put the population at risk. Instead of the population saying “thankfully we didn’t get hit bad,” they are saying “we had to evacuate for this?”
The key here is that the EM community must play an active role in their communities, especially where natural disasters are more common. Communities are key stakeholders and must be included in day-to-day operations. Building a community with an understanding of EM and a self-resiliency will save lives.
September 12th, 2008 at 6:56 am
I agree. You make some excellent points. I would stress, however, that people ultimately will follow sound, reasonable recommendations during an emergency as long as they are consistent and fair. When messages come piece-meal or are confusing then you risk creating a crying wolf scenario.
Thanks,
Adam
www.jocoprepare.blogspot.com
September 13th, 2008 at 8:44 am
Thanks for the excellent feedback, Johnny, Justin, and Adam. Your comments are, as they say, right-on. Earlier today, Hurricane Ike rolled ashore in Galveston and by all accounts, delivered a serious blow to the city. Interestingly enough, several media outlets are now reporting that those who chose to stay behind in Galveston are making frantic pleas for rescue and assistance. The bottom line is: when a voluntary or mandatory evacuation order is issued for an area in which you live, GO. In the meantime, our prayers and hopes are with the Texas Gulf Coast as it starts the long road to recovery.
September 14th, 2008 at 4:23 pm
And speaking of clichés, Disaster Central doesn’t want to “beat a dead horse” when it comes to putting an end to the phenomenon of “crying wolf” in emergency evacuations, but…as the Texas Gulf Coast confronts the destruction left by Hurricane Ike, Disaster Central wishes to respectfully remind its readers that the “proof is in the pudding” - and that anyone who still doubts the importance of evacuations, and of the critical need to heed voluntary and mandatory evacuation orders, should consider that as of this posting, the unhappy death toll from Ike is clearly much, much lower than it would’ve been had evacuations not been carried out.
At the same time, it’s necessary for the EM community to push for the legislation and the resources necessary to undertake efficient and effective evacuations when needed. Not surprisingly, not everyone who doesn’t evacuate does so because they want to stay behind. Often times, people can’t evacuate because of financial or mobility limitations.
It’s therefore necessary for the EM community to frame a debate, draft a series of suggestions and recommendations, and push for the implementation of a program that will allow citizens the means by which voluntary and mandatory evacuations can be conducted with as little financial disruption as possible. By making it easier for them, we make it easier on us. Disaster Central is honored to serve as an on-line forum for this debate, and welcomes your views, input, and wisdom on the subject.
Disaster Central extends its condolences to those who lost loved ones, its congratulations and relief to those who survived, and its thanks to those who worked so hard to save so many.
But there’s one casualty of Hurricane Ike that none of us will mourn - and that’s the big bad wolf of doubt and second-guessing that may be the greatest hazard of all.
September 17th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
Evacuations help save lives from emregency or disasterous situations. I agree with you Professor Longshore, when evacuations are ordered for communities people need to take heed. The people of New Orleans should be thankful that the evacuation was done and be prepared to evacuation again if necessary. Hurricane Katrina should have been a learning lesson for New Orleans. It is located in a very high hazard prone area and mother nature knows no boundaries.